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Old 07-15-2018, 11:13 AM   #1
Emabulator
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What's behind Nintendo's falling stock price?


Gamesindustry.biz has the story.

Quote:
Since Nintendo has just had its best 12 months in around a decade - both in commercial and creative terms - you just knew the other shoe was bound to drop sooner or later. Nintendo's fans and well-wishers never get this kind of a run of luck without interruption, and right enough, over the past few weeks the company's stock has taken a nose-dive, repeatedly levelling off only to plummet again as investors seemingly lose confidence in the platform holder's plans and its ability to meet its sales targets.

This is no small wobble; the company has now lost almost a quarter of its value on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in a series of price drops that began in late May. The curious thing about this drop, however, is that it's not really the kind of Nintendo rough patch anyone might have been anticipating.

There are a fair few ways in which Nintendo might have been predicted to mess up its recent run of success: a huge dry patch in its software release schedule, a failure to supply the market with enough hardware, doing something jaw-droppingly dense with its online service, or simply clamping up and failing to reassure consumers and investors of a solid release slate for the coming year. It's done all of those and more in the past, and had any of those things been followed by a massive share price slump, you'd shrug your shoulders and say, oh well, it was a good run.

The thing is that, in this instance, despite the billions wiped off Nintendo's valuation, it's actually really hard to pin down a specific reason for it beyond a general loss of investor confidence. None of the things mentioned above has happened, at least not in as dramatic a fashion as might explain such a pronounced drop in share price.

Some are pointing fingers at the lack of game announcements at E3, which definitely precipitated a further drop, but the decline started almost a month before. Moreover, the decline has continued long after any influence from E3's supposedly underwhelming showing ought to have been priced in. While the downward movement is slower now, it's still apparent week to week. Moreover, the market itself - the Tokyo Stock Exchange - is in fairly solid health all things considered, so the issue here is Nintendo-specific, and not an amplification of underlying market problems or uncertainty.
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Old 07-15-2018, 11:30 AM   #2
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Investors want more dividends. Suprise!

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Old 07-15-2018, 01:10 PM   #3
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...Sounds like the perfect time to BUY Nintendo stock
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Old 07-15-2018, 02:24 PM   #4
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...Sounds like the perfect time to BUY Nintendo stock



Imagine being a day trader. Those guys and girls go through such emotional highs and lows throughout a single day. I don't know how they do it.
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Old 07-15-2018, 02:43 PM   #5
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I think it's just investors being a bit too twitchy after a Smash Bros focused E3 with little else. That's Nintendo. They'll probably announce some big guns during some random, ill-timed Nintendo Direct. They're the masters of bad marketing. They'll show nothing at E3, then whisper out huge title announcements very quietly while no one is listening. It's almost like Nintendo succeeds despite themselves.

Gamestop reported that Switch sales doubled after E3, and NPD recently predicted the Switch to be the best selling console of 2018. It's still doing fine.

But the first year was so huge with Kart 8 Deluxe, Odyssey and Zelda: BotW. 2018 was never going to top 2017 from a software perspective.

There are still plenty of quality titles coming in. Most recently Square-Enix's Switch exclusive, Octopath Traveler and the underrated gem Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker.

They DO really need some big stuff to build some excitement, because it's pretty clear some of the enthusiasm after tons of software awards in 2017 is starting to fade. Give us mainline Animal Crossing, an Eternal Darkness sequel, Metroid Prime 4 gameplay footage, and something unique/great looking out of Retro Studios. They're letting the silence stew too long.
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Old 07-15-2018, 04:36 PM   #6
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...Sounds like the perfect time to BUY Nintendo stock
Yes, this is a definite BUY sign if you have any money. While Nintendo may have been a little weak at E3* I think the Switch is showing more and more promise. Wait till Q4 when the Switch is, once again, the must have item for Christmas.

Within the next few years (if Nintendo proves true to form) a new portable - not just a new form factor - will be coming out and like the DS and all the portables before it the numbers will be amazeballs.

* I disagree, at the very least I think their showing they are willing to start partnering in limited ways like having Starfox as an exclusive character on the Switch version of multiplatform titles is STELLAR
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Old 07-15-2018, 08:27 PM   #7
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* I disagree, at the very least I think their showing they are willing to start partnering in limited ways like having Starfox as an exclusive character on the Switch version of multiplatform titles is STELLAR
I like the partnering they're doing. The unique stuff with Rocket League, Fortnite, etc.

It does feel like Nintendo is taking this generation much more seriously. I think we're going to continue to see some great stuff from them in the next few years.

If they grand-slam a Metroid Prime 4 title that ends out being "a masterpiece" to go along with BotW and Odyssey, and throw in a few more major successes from their IP, I think everyone will look back on the Switch as a console you "had" to own.

Still want to see a real shocker from them though. A new IP totally out of their typical wheelhouse. Like a simulator like racer, (maybe an arcade/simulator hybrid, like a Baja racing type game) or a dark sci-fi survival horror, or just something where they take a risk and put their world class development skills to use in a genre they haven't ventured into before.
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Old 07-15-2018, 10:39 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by PatrickRes9 View Post
I like the partnering they're doing. The unique stuff with Rocket League, Fortnite, etc.

It does feel like Nintendo is taking this generation much more seriously. I think we're going to continue to see some great stuff from them in the next few years.

If they grand-slam a Metroid Prime 4 title that ends out being "a masterpiece" to go along with BotW and Odyssey, and throw in a few more major successes from their IP, I think everyone will look back on the Switch as a console you "had" to own.

Still want to see a real shocker from them though. A new IP totally out of their typical wheelhouse. Like a simulator like racer, (maybe an arcade/simulator hybrid, like a Baja racing type game) or a dark sci-fi survival horror, or just something where they take a risk and put their world class development skills to use in a genre they haven't ventured into before.
BOTW is not a masterpiece, nor is Mario version 2018 volume 23. Good for Nintendo, the switch didn't bomb like the Wii U but seriously if you truly believe that for titles that shipped in 2017-18 that those constitute "masterpieces" you have some low standards.
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Old 07-15-2018, 10:59 PM   #9
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Old 07-15-2018, 11:45 PM   #10
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What?! I thought this thing printed money!
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Old 07-16-2018, 02:47 AM   #11
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It's because Nintendo are only releasing one AAA 1st party title within an entire 12 month period (Smash) and it's a port of a WiiU game. It's bizarre that the stock market can spot that Nintendo are completely fucking up the Switch but gamers seem blind to it.
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Old 07-16-2018, 05:49 AM   #12
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BOTW is not a masterpiece, nor is Mario version 2018 volume 23. Good for Nintendo, the switch didn't bomb like the Wii U but seriously if you truly believe that for titles that shipped in 2017-18 that those constitute "masterpieces" you have some low standards.
You might not think so, but I've played through it and think BotW is a masterpiece. Critics think it's a masterpiece. (it won a million awards, and rated out higher than nearly any game ever). It's sales numbers also indicate the same thing.

So when judged collectively as an incredible game or not, I think people will look at sales figures, the awards, the critical acclaim, and their own personal experience and most will see it as masterpiece because they already indicated they have. Rather than asking what SpectralThundr thinks, and going with that opinion.

People have already written it as a masterpiece. No game can please everyone's tastes though, so there are people who don't think so. But that doesn't negate the success of the game.
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Old 07-16-2018, 05:53 AM   #13
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It's because Nintendo are only releasing one AAA 1st party title within an entire 12 month period (Smash) and it's a port of a WiiU game. It's bizarre that the stock market can spot that Nintendo are completely fucking up the Switch but gamers seem blind to it.
I agree they're definitely starting to drop the ball and slow their own momentum when it comes to their own 1st party titles. The idea behind the Switch was that the console/portable hybrid would allow them to double-down on development resources by only having 1 platform to develop for, but things have definitely slowed down for the time being. Things like Octopath Traveler and good Wii-U ports are fine additions, but they should be supplementing more new 1st party stuff, rather than being the only titles worth talking about in the last 6 months.

Nintendo themselves claimed "year 2 is critical". They'd better start name dropping some impressive projects or I think momentum is going to die.
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Old 07-16-2018, 06:34 AM   #14
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It's because Nintendo are only releasing one AAA 1st party title within an entire 12 month period (Smash) and it's a port of a WiiU game. It's bizarre that the stock market can spot that Nintendo are completely fucking up the Switch but gamers seem blind to it.
It's not a port, though.

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BOTW is not a masterpiece, nor is Mario version 2018 volume 23. Good for Nintendo, the switch didn't bomb like the Wii U but seriously if you truly believe that for titles that shipped in 2017-18 that those constitute "masterpieces" you have some low standards.
Meh. You wouldn't really know, either way. It's not as if you've played any of these games.
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Old 07-16-2018, 07:43 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by vallor View Post
Within the next few years (if Nintendo proves true to form) a new portable - not just a new form factor - will be coming out and like the DS and all the portables before it the numbers will be amazeballs.
I wouldn't be so sure about Nintendo bringing out another dedicated handheld anytime soon, unless it's a "Switch Mini" that doesn't come with a dock, but plays all Switch games on a smaller (< 6") screen, with smaller, more pocket-friendly Joycons.

Maybe the drop in investor faith comes from the fact (note: This might not be an actual fact, but just my impression!) that Nintendo so far hasn't managed to position the Switch as a family console. The sales numbers are solid to great, but they could easily be attributed to core gamers returning to Nintendo. If you ask around, people are happy with their PS4s, tablets or even their old Wii.

You could argue that Nintendo is in a similar position now as the company was during the GameCube years. The Switch is not (yet) a Wii that every family wanted, nay: needed to own. The Labo series is an original, but less than successful attempt to enter that market. The 3DS is trickling out (it was about time, if you ask me). Nintendo's mobile apps are great and popular, but lack the ruthlessness required to bring in the big money (see: King.com, Supercell).

Also: The stock market is for assholes. Therefore: Yeah, I can see why some opportunists invest their gambling money elsewhere.
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Old 07-16-2018, 07:47 AM   #16
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I wouldn't be so sure about Nintendo bringing out another dedicated handheld anytime soon, unless it's a "Switch Mini" that doesn't come with a dock, but plays all Switch games on a smaller (< 6") screen, with smaller, more pocket-friendly Joycons.

Maybe the drop in investor faith comes from the fact (note: This might not be an actual fact, but just my impression!) that Nintendo so far hasn't managed to position the Switch as a family console. The sales numbers are solid to great, but they could easily be attributed to core gamers returning to Nintendo. If you ask around, people are happy with their PS4s, tablets or even their old Wii.

You could argue that Nintendo is in a similar position now as the company was during the GameCube years. The Switch is not (yet) a Wii that every family wanted, nay: needed to own. The Labo series is an original, but less than successful attempt to enter that market. The 3DS is trickling out (it was about time, if you ask me). Nintendo's mobile apps are great and popular, but lack the ruthlessness required to bring in the big money (see: King.com, Supercell).

Also: The stock market is for assholes. Therefore: Yeah, I can see why some opportunists invest their gambling money elsewhere.
Great points. Nintendo is a wildcard anyway. They're up and down. I wouldn't exactly call them a source of stability. They're equally likely to do something incredible and totally disrupt the market as they are to lay an egg for an entire generation. They're risk takers and they don't take the "safe" road.
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Old 07-16-2018, 07:56 AM   #17
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The Switch could still end up a flop. If Nintendo don't announce some first party titles very soon then the momentum will die. It's starting to look like they could realistically try to go 2 full years only releasing WiiU ports and B level titles like mario tennis. I love the console, I love Nintendo but if they let the Switch wither on the vine then i'm done with them, for serious reals.

It is so bizarre that they didn't have any plan for 2018 beyond porting smash (and it is a port). Jesus if they would just tell people what's coming it would help, right now i'm wondering if anything is coming.
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Old 07-16-2018, 08:05 AM   #18
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The Switch could still end up a flop. If Nintendo don't announce some first party titles very soon then the momentum will die. It's starting to look like they could realistically try to go 2 full years only releasing WiiU ports and B level titles like mario tennis. I love the console, I love Nintendo but if they let the Switch wither on the vine then i'm done with them, for serious reals.

It is so bizarre that they didn't have any plan for 2018 beyond porting smash (and it is a port). Jesus if they would just tell people what's coming it would help, right now i'm wondering if anything is coming.
I wouldn't assume their only plan for 2018 was Smash. In recent years, they've never really relied on E3 to make their announcements; they typically save that stuff for Nintendo Directs.

Sure, this could be banking solely on Smash for the majority of 2018...but I'm not counting 'em out quite yet.
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Old 07-16-2018, 08:59 AM   #19
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I wouldn't assume their only plan for 2018 was Smash. In recent years, they've never really relied on E3 to make their announcements; they typically save that stuff for Nintendo Directs.

Sure, this could be banking solely on Smash for the majority of 2018...but I'm not counting 'em out quite yet.
I hope they have more coming but I can't see why they wouldn't have said so at E3 if they had anything big.
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Old 07-16-2018, 10:07 AM   #20
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I hope they have more coming but I can't see why they wouldn't have said so at E3 if they had anything big.
Well, they don't usually use E3 to make their big announcements. They make them through Nintendo Direct. It's not as if they haven't skipped E3 entirely in recent history; they didn't bother with the 2017 show, despite the fact that it happened to be the year the Switch took the world by storm.

For example (it's important to stress that most of the stuff being discussed are purely rumors), they would be saving announcements such as Kingdom Hearts 3, Mother 3D, a new New Super Mario Bros, and Super Mario Maker for their own Direct announcements, as opposed to E3.

E3 simply hasn't been all that important to Nintendo in recent years. They prefer to use their own channels to make their announcements on their own time.
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