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Old 06-11-2018, 10:51 AM   #1
Whimbrel
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Predictions for Korea talks?

We are on the precipice of a mystery. Anybody want to guess what they think will happen tomorrow? Presumably in the first 60 seconds, but also possibly by the end of the whole shebang?
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Old 06-11-2018, 11:49 AM   #2
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I think we will see a big change in North Korea in the next 5 years thanks to the talks tomorrow.

Kim Jong Un will be blown away by Trump's bombastic attitude; Trump is a force of nature and Kim will be completely overwhelmed. Trump will say the right things and Kim will want NK to become part of the world; even a little bit. This will mean dropping the nuke program, letting his people have some freedoms and maybe a few more luxuries (or at least more food). I think even dictators would prefer genuine love/like from their subjects than pure fear.

At least that's my hope.
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Old 06-11-2018, 01:04 PM   #3
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I think we will see a big change in North Korea in the next 5 years thanks to the talks tomorrow.

Kim Jong Un will be blown away by Trump's bombastic attitude; Trump is a force of nature and Kim will be completely overwhelmed. Trump will say the right things and Kim will want NK to become part of the world; even a little bit. This will mean dropping the nuke program, letting his people have some freedoms and maybe a few more luxuries (or at least more food). I think even dictators would prefer genuine love/like from their subjects than pure fear.

At least that's my hope.
:/

Really? Thatís what you honestly think is going to happen?
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Old 06-11-2018, 01:36 PM   #4
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Success would mean the following:

* Denuclearization. Absolutely mandatory.
* Peace treaty (currently an armistice).
* Eventual exchange of ambassadors.
* Peaceful coexistence.

China wants a buffer between them and American allies/soldiers. I don't blame them a bit. North Korea is not going away any time soon because China wants them to exist. So what. Let them. Let's just get beyond the constant saber rattling and just leave each other be. That would be a giant win.

No idea if it can happen. Not sure China wants peace between North and South/US, or even if NK wants it for that matter. I know Trump would like to see it happen. He likes wins. So do I. We shall see.

If you're rooting against him? Fuck you. You need a serious rethink of your priorities and perspective.
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Old 06-11-2018, 06:12 PM   #5
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I don't know what will happen with this. Obviously the hope is something good comes of it.

My opinion is that KJU wants one thing: to remain in power. I think the best chance is to make some sort of deal where he begins to slowly open the country, agreeing that his reign is the final one. I wonder if he could be convinced that he'd be forever seen as a hero if he took the DPRK down that path. That would, of course, mean ending WMD programs and bringing the Korean War to an official end.

But who knows, the status quo could simply remain -- or it could be an absolute disaster.
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Old 06-11-2018, 08:51 PM   #6
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If Wikileaks is to be believed, North Korea is starting to cozy up to the US out of desperation; China is apparently pressuring them to the point where peace with South Korea and buddying up with the US is the preferable option.
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Old 06-11-2018, 09:38 PM   #7
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OK, full disclosure, I forgot to check on the time difference, so at this point the talks have already started, so I am not entitled to any predictive status.

But here is what I think will happen. I think North Korea will use the talks to assume greater legitimacy and consolidate their power, and the US won't get shit.

Here is my reasoning. KJU is simply more committed and more experienced as a leader. Trump seems mostly clueless, is unpopular within his own country, has no negotiating skills or credibility, and has no interest in getting his image dirty in a complicated negotiation.I'm not 100% sure, but didn't KJU have his own family members killed to consolidate his power. He is simply in a different league as a leader than Trump.

Now, take Trump out of it and put in Clinton, Sanders, or Obama, could they bring home the bacon with Korea based simply on their greater experience and intelligence? I don't think they would do any better than Trump. If Korea is truly entrenched around the idea of being recognized as a nuclear power, then disarmament talks are just stalling.

Trump will spin this as a great first step and "We'll see what happens...." but I don't expect steps towards disarmament.

Now, as for Terran's point about how people who root against people trying to do good for the country and the world for purely partisan reasons should fuck themselves, I'd love to see that sentiment expressed without regard to partisan affiliation. By Terran. But it is a partisan world now, so the sentiment rings double standardish. But, in truth, I would love it if Trump accomplishes anything with North Korea to increase security and peace and restore some of the credibility of this administration.
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Old 06-11-2018, 09:51 PM   #8
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Here is my reasoning. KJU is simply more committed and more experienced as a leader. Trump seems mostly clueless, is unpopular within his own country, has no negotiating skills or credibility,
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Old 06-11-2018, 09:55 PM   #9
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Trump...is unpopular within his own country
Trump more popular than Reagan or Obama at same point in presidencies.

I'm sure you were talking about how unpopular Obama was at this point of his first term, right? Yeah...suuuuure.

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Trump will spin this as a great first step
Already spinning the outcome are you? As to be expected from a liberal...

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I'd love to see that sentiment expressed without regard to partisan affiliation.
You failed yourself, lol, in making it partisan. So, GFY.
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Old 06-11-2018, 10:13 PM   #10
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OK, full disclosure, I forgot to check on the time difference, so at this point the talks have already started, so I am not entitled to any predictive status.

But here is what I think will happen. I think North Korea will use the talks to assume greater legitimacy and consolidate their power, and the US won't get shit.

Here is my reasoning. KJU is simply more committed and more experienced as a leader
. Trump seems mostly clueless, is unpopular within his own country, has no negotiating skills or credibility, and has no interest in getting his image dirty in a complicated negotiation.I'm not 100% sure, but didn't KJU have his own family members killed to consolidate his power. He is simply in a different league as a leader than Trump.

Now, take Trump out of it and put in Clinton, Sanders, or Obama, could they bring home the bacon with Korea based simply on their greater experience and intelligence? I don't think they would do any better than Trump. If Korea is truly entrenched around the idea of being recognized as a nuclear power, then disarmament talks are just stalling.

Trump will spin this as a great first step and "We'll see what happens...." but I don't expect steps towards disarmament.

Now, as for Terran's point about how people who root against people trying to do good for the country and the world for purely partisan reasons should fuck themselves, I'd love to see that sentiment expressed without regard to partisan affiliation. By Terran. But it is a partisan world now, so the sentiment rings double standardish. But, in truth, I would love it if Trump accomplishes anything with North Korea to increase security and peace and restore some of the credibility of this administration.
The bolded part is why you're an idiot. Edit: after reading your entire reply again I should have bolded the entire thing, again, you're an idiot.
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Old 06-12-2018, 03:35 AM   #11
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But here is what I think will happen. I think North Korea will use the talks to assume greater legitimacy and consolidate their power, and the US won't get shit.
The U.S. has already gotten a few things in the short-term, so it's the long-term that is the question. So, this is already wrong.

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Here is my reasoning. KJU is simply more committed and more experienced as a leader. Trump seems mostly clueless, is unpopular within his own country, has no negotiating skills or credibility, and has no interest in getting his image dirty in a complicated negotiation.I'm not 100% sure, but didn't KJU have his own family members killed to consolidate his power. He is simply in a different league as a leader than Trump.
KJU had family killed to protect his power, not consolidate it -- he's been the sole leader since 2011. Trump has far more experience negotiating on the international stage. Will that ultimately matter? Who knows.

One of the issues that KJU has faced was his inexperience. I do get a chuckle out of the comparison between KJU and Trump here, but remember: you'd love to see that sentiment expressed without regard to partisan affiliation.

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Now, take Trump out of it and put in Clinton, Sanders, or Obama, could they bring home the bacon with Korea based simply on their greater experience and intelligence? I don't think they would do any better than Trump. If Korea is truly entrenched around the idea of being recognized as a nuclear power, then disarmament talks are just stalling.
You do know that Obama was president for 8 years, Bill was president for 8 years, and Hillary was Sec. State, right? We know if they could bring home the bacon with Korea -- they couldn't. Look at Bill Clinton's deal with the Koreans. Look at Obama's pivot to the Pacific and his work on the DPRK. It equated to nothing.

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As secretary of State, Clinton oversaw a hands-off approach to North Korea. Under a policy called "strategic patience," the Obama administration refused to offer any new incentives to Pyongyang to induce it to return to nuclear-disarmament talks following the collapse of an attempted deal at the end of the Bush term. The North Koreans were infuriated, and more nuclear and missile tests ensued, along with open hostilities between North and South Korea in 2010.
The current administration pursued a policy called "maximum pressure."

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Trump will spin this as a great first step and "We'll see what happens...." but I don't expect steps towards disarmament.
They've already taken the initial steps towards disarmament. The question is if they'll continue to do so or reverse them.

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Now, as for Terran's point about how people who root against people trying to do good for the country and the world for purely partisan reasons should fuck themselves, I'd love to see that sentiment expressed without regard to partisan affiliation. By Terran. But it is a partisan world now, so the sentiment rings double standardish. But, in truth, I would love it if Trump accomplishes anything with North Korea to increase security and peace and restore some of the credibility of this administration.
Haha uh huh. Your belief that Trump is "mostly clueless, is unpopular within his own country, has no negotiating skills or credibility, and has no interest in getting his image dirty in a complicated negotiation" versus KJU being "more committed and more experienced as a leader" and you evidently believe that not to be partisan. Yet when Terran says people hoping that Trump fails to gain success (which Terran listed what he considered success) because it's Trump, you think that's partisan? It seems to be you're the one unable to drop the partisan worldview.
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Old 06-12-2018, 07:40 AM   #12
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Old 06-12-2018, 08:31 AM   #13
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KJU is simply more committed and more experienced as a leader.
Seriously? Do you know anything about him? KJU is literally is an inexperienced kid who was thrust into the leadership role 7 years ago when his father died. His country is crumbling around him and his worm-ridden people are risking being shot to escape across the border. Meanwhile Trump is a businessman who has been leading companies for decades and is leading one of the most prosperous nations in the world, which by the way is currently experiencing a record breaking economy. Are you trolling?

In fact, I question whether KJU is the actual power in Korea to be honest, or if he is just a figurehead so his fathers cronies can stay in power. His friends in college say the current KJU isn't the same person they knew. In fact, a defector even backed this up some time ago.
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Old 06-12-2018, 09:55 AM   #14
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The U.S. has already gotten a few things in the short-term, so it's the long-term that is the question. So, this is already wrong.

KJU had family killed to protect his power, not consolidate it -- he's been the sole leader since 2011. Trump has far more experience negotiating on the international stage. Will that ultimately matter? Who knows.

One of the issues that KJU has faced was his inexperience. I do get a chuckle out of the comparison between KJU and Trump here, but remember: you'd love to see that sentiment expressed without regard to partisan affiliation.

You do know that Obama was president for 8 years, Bill was president for 8 years, and Hillary was Sec. State, right? We know if they could bring home the bacon with Korea -- they couldn't. Look at Bill Clinton's deal with the Koreans. Look at Obama's pivot to the Pacific and his work on the DPRK. It equated to nothing.

Politico:

The current administration pursued a policy called "maximum pressure."

They've already taken the initial steps towards disarmament. The question is if they'll continue to do so or reverse them.

Haha uh huh. Your belief that Trump is "mostly clueless, is unpopular within his own country, has no negotiating skills or credibility, and has no interest in getting his image dirty in a complicated negotiation" versus KJU being "more committed and more experienced as a leader" and you evidently believe that not to be partisan. Yet when Terran says people hoping that Trump fails to gain success (which Terran listed what he considered success) because it's Trump, you think that's partisan? It seems to be you're the one unable to drop the partisan worldview.
Briefly, it remains to be seen what the early commitments and promises add up to, so in terms of getting a possible bag of hot air, yes, in the short term, we have already gotten something meaningful. In the long term, you are completely correct. But didn't Trump say that anything less than immediate disarmament with full exposure and inspections was a non-starter? But, not to belabor the point, I agree with you. Short term we have nothing substantial, long term remains to be seen.

Having said that, the signed agreement is a huge deal and Trump and his admin and the NK team as well deserve a lot of credit. Even if it is nothing more than a symbolic gesture, I think it is a huge win. I mean, for one thing, it might work. For two, imagine how much worse this could have gone.

Protect/ consolidate/ strengthen/ preserve/ etc. My point was he has more resolve and commitment. Inexperience? He is young, but he was raised for this, unlike Trump who was raised for what? Real estate? Celebrity? certainly not leadership. KJU will stop at nothing for power. Trump can't wait to blow this off and play more golf. That's a pretty big difference.

Seems like you are agreeing with me in an odd way about how Democrats could not do better. But thanks.

Maximum pressure was diffused with maximum flattery and a hint at a Noble Prize.

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Yet when Terran says people hoping that Trump fails to gain success (which Terran listed what he considered success) because it's Trump, you think that's partisan? It seems to be you're the one unable to drop the partisan worldview.
I think Trump's behavior and skill set is pretty established, but that was certainly not my point here. I agree with Terran and I think his list of goals for the talks was fantastic. I also agreed with his point about people rooting against world peace just because of partisan spite should fuck themselves. My specific point about Terran was that I would like to see him not root against democrats/ liberals/ progressives when they are trying to achieve similar good out of partisan spite, otherwise he is just setting forth another double standard.

That being said, and regardless of my partisan feelings against Trump, I think this was a huge success and I am glad that at least as far as NPR's lead off story today, he is actually getting some real credit and praise for once.
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Old 06-12-2018, 10:08 AM   #15
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Most likely nothing will change. Trump just gets another feather in his cap on the way to reelection. Kim goes back to North Korea with some bogus deal where the US gives him billions of dollars to be quiet for a little while.
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Old 06-12-2018, 01:18 PM   #16
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Not sure what will come of it, and the only measure of success is what actually will result from the talks. Since nobody knows what will happen over the next six months to a year, everybody is simply stating hypotheses at this point that probably speak more to their own biases than anything else.

For now, better to talk than have a shooting war. Eventually, sooner rather than later, their nuclear ambitions must be ended. They can talk their way there with us, or we can end them as a threat. Ultimately, it's up to them. We shall see!

Obama got a Nobel Peace Prize for far, far, far less, lol. That's a prize that should be awarded for past accomplishments, not ideological conformity to the committee's preferences or predictive hopes and dreams.
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Old 06-12-2018, 03:13 PM   #17
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Briefly, it remains to be seen what the early commitments and promises add up to, so in terms of getting a possible bag of hot air, yes, in the short term, we have already gotten something meaningful.
Just so we're on the same page, I was referencing that we had received things prior to the summit; things that appear to have been motivated by hopes of posturing.

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In the long term, you are completely correct. But didn't Trump say that anything less than immediate disarmament with full exposure and inspections was a non-starter? But, not to belabor the point, I agree with you. Short term we have nothing substantial, long term remains to be seen.
I believe he went from that to a disarmament process:
Quote:
Rather than sticking with the demand that North Korea disarm immediately, Mr. Trump opened the door to a prolonged freeze on the Northís existing nuclear capability, with vague declarations that disarmament will follow. That is essentially the deal Mr. Clinton embarked on with Mr. Kimís grandfather, Kim Il-sung, in 1994.
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Having said that, the signed agreement is a huge deal and Trump and his admin and the NK team as well deserve a lot of credit. Even if it is nothing more than a symbolic gesture, I think it is a huge win. I mean, for one thing, it might work. For two, imagine how much worse this could have gone.
This is where I disagree, I don't think it's yet a huge deal because it's largely just symbolic at this point.

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Protect/ consolidate/ strengthen/ preserve/ etc. My point was he has more resolve and commitment. Inexperience? He is young, but he was raised for this, unlike Trump who was raised for what? Real estate? Celebrity? certainly not leadership. KJU will stop at nothing for power. Trump can't wait to blow this off and play more golf. That's a pretty big difference.
You're aware that Trump has been making negotiating longer than KJU has been alive, right? I'd bet that Trump is far more interested in setting himself up for some historic win than golf, but partisans gotta see the world via partisan lenses.

I agree that KJU will stop at nothing for power -- which is precisely what I'd wager they're hoping to leverage.

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Seems like you are agreeing with me in an odd way about how Democrats could not do better. But thanks.
No, I wasn't agree with you -- I was pointing out that it wasn't a question, as we've seen what Bill, Hillary, and Obama did.

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Maximum pressure was diffused with maximum flattery and a hint at a Noble Prize.
No, it wasn't. Even CNN realizes this: These sanctions will keep squeezing North Korea's economy.

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I think Trump's behavior and skill set is pretty established, but that was certainly not my point here. I agree with Terran and I think his list of goals for the talks was fantastic. I also agreed with his point about people rooting against world peace just because of partisan spite should fuck themselves. My specific point about Terran was that I would like to see him not root against democrats/ liberals/ progressives when they are trying to achieve similar good out of partisan spite, otherwise he is just setting forth another double standard.
And as pointed out in your previous post, you seem to have gone straight partisan and now appear to want to sort of walk it back.
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Old 06-12-2018, 04:29 PM   #18
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I'm not sure if this has been confirmed, but supposedly KJU was shown this video:
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Old 06-13-2018, 03:26 PM   #19
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History does evolve, but it also repeats.

I don't know if i want NK adopting the western model as it is today. Its godless, cultureless and not even sustainable. If the west can stop its endless wars, propping up enemies to keep the military chugging, fix the immigration issues so society can heal, then maybe we can be something worth looking up to. It does feel like a sort of new world order is happening. And i can honestly say it doesn't feel planned. Trump and the right wing movements are changing everything.

Ive never been worried about China even though lots of people are. This podcast has changed my mind. We have big challenges on the horizon if any of what these guys are saying is to be believed.

The first half of this show is mostly immigration, inside baseball stuff, the second half is about China. Ho-lee-chit. Ignore the name of this podcast you fundamentalist civnats, the show is a well done, professional show with 100k listeners a week.

http://fashthenation.com/2018/05/fas...-yellow-peril/
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